2016 Market Melt Off, Hooray! : Small Time Blog

2016 Market Melt Off, Hooray!

by Bradley Voight on 01/27/16

The new year has brought on massive profit taking in the broader market! After climbing the 8 year wall of Obama worry, large institutions are cashing in for the next phase of the economic expansion or China is having an asteroid sized hard landing and we are all doomed! I have stated on here before that I am an optimist, even though I could get burned for my tendency to look for the good, so I am sticking by my view that this is an economic expansion that is not over in the US or China or India for that matter. I am staying with and even expanding positions in the Smalltime Model Portfolio. I have branched out to my first international fund in my IRA. 


Pessimism is rampant in the marketplace and the Fed is sticking by the December decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (rising rates usually mean economy is good). How could the central bank be so wrong and Wall Street so right? The commodity pitfall seems to have leveled off with oil regaining the $30 handle and Copper stabilizing above $2. Long term rates are falling with the 10 year US treasury cliff hanging at 2% (a function of the demographic trend of aging baby boomers)

I'm staying with my notion that the economy in the US continues to expand. Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld stated in the companies' recent quarterly earnings call that 2016 would bring record aluminum demand. How is that when everyone keeps saying the sky is falling? Over 17 million vehicles were sold in the US last year, a new record. Who bought them? Who in the hell are all the people stuck in rush hour? I always say that the glass is half full for me and it is going to stay that way until some knocks it from my hand and spills it.


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