Happy 6th Birthday Bull Market! : Small Time Blog

Happy 6th Birthday Bull Market!

by Bradley Voight on 03/09/15

On March 9th of 2009 the clouds lifted and suddenly the storm was over for US equity markets. After hitting a low below 7000, The DJIA turned tail and, suffice a few hick ups, we've been running with the bulls every since. All good things must come to an end but I've gone on record here on the Smalltime Blog saying that the macro business cycle hit a low in 2008-2009, a low marked by the second longest manufacturing contraction since 1948. What I see is a world where everything is old and needs replaced and I see corporations flush with cash. The impending rise in interest rates is going to drive projects from blueprint to reality because any large construction project will cost more at higher rates, so I expect and am already seeing in my locale, a boom in commercial construction. If oil is to stay low, it is only a tailwind for US businesses and consumers.


Do I expect to be here next year with seven candles? Yes I do but with this caveat: no major unexpected moves out of Russia. If the world is a poker deck, Russia is the wildcard. The Middle East is always on the radar as a potential flash point. Each year we get closer it seems to the whole region blowing up and with the fast rise of ISIS it is more precarious than ever over there. 

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