Smalltime's 2015 Economic Outlook : Small Time Blog

Smalltime's 2015 Economic Outlook

by Bradley Voight on 01/14/15

This is the year of the interest rate hike. What interest rate? The federal overnight funds rate that has been held below .25 (or 25 basis points) for 5+ years. The financial world panics every time the rate hike is mentioned. They want to know exactly when and how much the rate will go up and the Fed under Bernanke, and now Yellen have repeatedly said over the last few years or so that any rate increase would be small and it would only happen when the economic data support it, the data being the unemployment rate, wage growth and GDP growth among others. 


Smalltime thinks that the rate will be moved in .25 point increments with the first one coming in the mid-summer. This will be after two more quarters of 5% annualized GDP growth following the third quarter of fiscal 2014. Here is the one reason I think this is going to happen: Freight Flow. I-65 and I-70 are loaded with trucks but three types of trucks in particular tell the economic story. 1. Flatbeds with new heavy machinery and other specialty freight.
2. Plain white, brand new 48' and 53' trailers, denoting independent truckers reentering the market
3. Leased trailers. There are an increasing number of leased trailers on the road. a local leasing company, Premier Trailer Leasing had a 50 acre lot full of trailers last spring and it looks like a ghost town now. 

President Obama, like him or not, has presided over the longest continuous stretch of private sector job growth in US history. I am a political atheist to quote Gerald Celente, a well known trends researcher, I think both parties work for each other so I credit the economy not to a party or a leader but to the business cycle. "Every thing good needs replacin" as Dave Mathews says, but I say everything old needs replacing and that means cars, IT, infrastructure, fire trucks, municipal water works across the nation, and the list goes on. It all needs replaced and if the threat of interest rate hikes are real, then you will see investment tick up to beat rising rates. 

Currency fluctuations and the drop in oil prices have caused turmoil in equity markets. Until we hear from corporate America this quarter as to how these developments have either helped or hindered profits and profit growth, we won't know but I suspect we will hear that low oil prices help most companies. Continued liquidity from foreign central banks will keep equity markets rolling in 2015 and the S&P 500 will end the year at or near 2275 after rough sailing, but it is the Russell 2000 that will hit all time highs throughout the year closing near 1450. Gold and silver will crack and break below $1000 and $13 respectively.

There must be a word or two on black swan events. Smash Mouth says "My worlds on fire, how about yours? That's the way I like it and I'll never get bored" and I agree. Ecclesiastes 7:10 says, Do not say "Why has it happened that the former days proved better than these?" for it is not due to wisdom that you asked about this. I tend to agree, there are no 'good ole days', the here and now are the best days we have. In the coming year there will be wars and terror events and atrocities untold but until an asteroid hits our fine Mother Earth, I am going to continue to look for the good in humanity and strive to be the best person I can be in the new year and beyond and I hope you will do the same.

Comments (0)


Leave a comment


Disclaimer: This is not investment advice as I am neither licensed nor qualified to advise anyone's financial decisions. It is a site presenting an "out of the box" set of ideas on how to possibly maximize profit from recycling, creating an incentive for people to recycle. Smalltimerecycling.com and I Brad Voight are not responsible for any losses incurred from tips or suggestions presented on Smalltimrecycling.com, they are simply my own opinions and I encourage you to form your own opinions.
Also, the Smalltime Blog is not intended to be journalism. It is my own personal commentary on market factors, conditions, and events and other commentary relative to the content on Smalltimerecycling.com and is by no means meant to convey news or provide coverage of any news event.
Small Time Recycling's Mission Statement

Our primary mission is to reclaim valuable recyclables from the waste stream and bring attention to the wastefulness of America. Currently we are recycling metals and e-waste. The Smalltime Blog is a non political commentary on metal, stock, currency and other markets. The Smalltime Blog is also where the hard lessons of a self taught investor are discussed.
ReUseIt.com
​$1 billion+ worth of aluminum cans trashed each year in America. 
That's $19 billion thrown away this century!

Fill out the form below and describe the metal items you want removed and their location